I. Summary of proposed activities
The coming one-year coincides with the middle of our project period. What we achieve during this period has decisive effects on our overall achievement of our 5-year project purposes. We will try to gain good output both in terms of quantity and quality.
The project intends to work on the core of the project purposes: Improve reliability and timeliness of our data so that OAE will be regarded as the most reliable information center within MOAC; and upgrade human capacity of OAE in ASEAN country assistance on agricultural statistics/ information.
Our major work will include the following:
Continue organizing AFSIS training, workshops and seminars as well as teaching/ guiding classes and field work in these programs. Study additional means of assisting neighboring countries based on the output of the project.
Improve area survey of crops using GIS-based area sampling frame, while continuing crop cutting surveys, improving their methods and expanding commodity coverage,
Develop and expand the web-based survey data entry/ reporting system, combined with survey data analysis system using database facilities.
Complete Agricultural I/O Table 2000 and publicize the basic data report and the analytical reports throughout the ASEAN+3 region by organizing an international workshop; develop the macro-economic model for agricultural sector and the commodity demand-supply models and publicize them to the policy-making and academic users in Thailand and ASEAN+3 region,
Send ROAE officials to Japan to raise their awareness of important roles to be played by the regional offices and learn the management and work of regional/ local offices for statistics in Japan.
II. Planned activities by group
1. Capacity building of ASEAN country assistance
As ASEAD and AFSIS progresses and the project members get more convinced of their technical and management capacity, the project members pay more attention to improving statistics and information in the whole ASEAN region. Keeping this in mind, ASEAD will pursue ways to contribute to the regional activities.
Help counterpart in AFSIS training, seminar and workshop
The project will continue on providing technical assistance to AFSIS training, seminar and workshop organization as well as teaching/ guiding classes and field work. Many of these programs will be organized in ASEAN+3 member countries, as agreed by the 3rd Focal Point Meeting of AFSIS project.
- A regional workshop on AFSIS database improvement in April/ May in Thailand
- A regional training on the IT application in June-October in China,
- A regional training in Korea in October 2005. Its subject is to be determined later.
- A national seminar in Malaysia in September 2005
- A national seminar in Vietnam in September/October 2005
The 4th Focal Point Meeting of AFSIS and possibly the Directors-General Meeting of Agricultural Statistics and Information.
Upgrading counterparts’ capacity for international technology dissemination
By now, some Thai counterparts have built up their capacities in planning and implementing surveys by new methodology. Other ASEAN countries appear to need such new technology for survey improvement. While AFSIS training programs offer the means of disseminating these methods, a visit by Thai counterparts to these countries may be more effective. The project will study the possible means of attaining this goal.
2. Data collection methodology
By now, the basic structure of crop cutting method for major crops was established. Hence, activities by the Data Collection Group will be diversified. Experimenting on the new system of area survey will be the one. Refining the crop cutting methods will be another. Studies of forecasting methods will continue, too.
The new area survey, when combined with yield surveys by crop cutting, will open a completely new phase of production survey in Thailand. Since it is new, we may encounter unexpected problems and obstacles in the course of its implementation. The project will find ways to overcome them to ensure that the new survey system materializes.
- (a) Area survey
- Trials will be conducted for the formation of an area sampling frame based on GIS technology. Field surveys will be experimented for planted/harvested areas on sample plots sampled from the area frame.
- (b) Crop cutting surveys
- By now, the basic structure of crop cutting method for major crops was established. This year, the project will refine the methods and widen its commodity coverage.
Crop cutting surveys of five major food commodities (rice, cassava, sugarcane, maize and soybean) will continue. In addition this method will be applied to other crops such as longan, pineapple, onion, etc., to widen the commodity coverage.
In the pineapple crop cutting, experimental surveys will be conducted to use area frame constructed from GI data.
Ways of improving data qualities will be studied and experimented. Survey forms and manuals will be reviewed to eliminate/ reduce errors. Data validation and editing procedure will be improved.
A trial will be conducted for the formulation of list sampling frames using the data from the Agricultural Census 2003. - (c) Forecasting
- Further studies will be conducted for crop production forecasting. The new methods should be applicable to Thai situation. Possible means includes: calculating normal yields, early use of crop cutting data, regression forecasts, etc.
3. Information Network System
-
- (a) Developing survey data entry/ reporting system.
- Developing and expanding the web-based survey data entry/ reporting system, combined with survey data analysis system using database facilities, will form the main part of the project activities in this group. The system development for the crop cutting data will be conducted under close coordination between the survey-planning sector and the programming sector. The crop cutting data will be stored in a database and additional programs will be developed to analyze the data and to use them for forecasting. Fore other surveys such as area survey, necessary programs will be developed.
As commodity coverage of the crop cutting survey widens, shortage of counterparts working on program development of data entry/processing as well as summarizing the data became apparent. We need to have more people participating in these activities.
CAI started experimenting on the system development of this concept using the Oracle database facilities. If it is proved successful, it will be the main approach of new survey data system. We would like to encourage CAI to pursue this new approach. - (b) Expanding ROAE Web Sites
- Technical supports will be extended to ROAE for their web site development and maintenance. We will try to open web sites in all nine ROAEs, widen coverage of information in these pages and promote early update of the contents.
4. Economic Analysis
The Agricultural Input/Output Table 2000 will be completed by the third quarter of the year 2005. After the completion, the basic data report will be released to public uses, and the analytical reports will be prepared for policy-making and policy-planning.
The macro-economic model will be up-dated by using the latest available data, and expanded for linking with input-output model. It is also important work for agricultural policy simulation and forecasting the agricultural economy.
The Commodity demand-supply models will be developed for sugar cane and soy-beans. In addition, the former three models (rice, maize, and cassava) will be up-dated based on the latest data and information.
International Workshop on Input-Output Analysis for Agricultural Sectors: After completing the agricultural input-output table and the analytical reports, the results (the basic data report and the analytical report) will be publicized throughout the ASEAN+3 region through an international workshop to be held in December 2005. In addition, the workshop will invite the presentation form the macro-economic analysis and the commodity demand-supply analysis.
5. Development of training capacity
Training for Capacity Building of ROAE for Statistics and Information: The project plans to send ROAE officials to Japan to let them raise their awareness of important roles to be played by the regional offices and learn the management and work of regional/ local offices for statistics in Japan. A total of 12 persons, consisting of 9 ROAE and 3 OAE officials, will be invited for the training. Some of the participants will be on a cost-share basis. The visiting team will spend much of their time in traveling to the regional and local Agricultural Statistics and Information Centers in Japan to observe roles and activities of these offices.
In addition to (a), the project plans to send three groups of counterparts to Japan, as follows:
Statistical Database (1 person)
Macro-Economic Models (3 persons, including cost share 2 persons)
Input-Output Analysis (3 persons, including cost share 2 persons)
Training of ROAE staff and SKT will continue so as to develop their capacities further. The subjects will cover crop cutting surveys, area surveys, data processing and reporting, etc. ROAE has developed its capability in organizing and teaching the training courses for SKT to a certain extent. It also is increasing its capacity to teach SKT. ROAE will be encouraged to perform its functions as leading SKT and controlling the field survey in more effective ways.
Statistical planning capacity of OAE staff
OAE staff will be encouraged to upgrade its capacity as planner of surveys and analyzer of survey data. They should concentrate their attention on more qualitative aspect of the surveys. Analyzing and validating data is one example. Designing survey forms which are simpler and error-minimizing is another. Counterparts and experts will deepen their discussion on this matter.
6. General activities
- (a) Hand-over to successor experts
- JICA experts will hand over their responsibilities to their successors. The change-over will take place during the period between July 2005 and July 2006. The project will make sure of smooth hand-over so that no hindrance to project activities may occur.
- (b) JICA mid-term evaluation
- JICA plans to send its mid-term evaluation team either in December 2005 or January 2006. As the result of the evaluation, project orientation for the rest of the implementation period will be determined. Means of ensuring sustainable outputs and extending them both in Thailand and neighboring countries are also expected to be discussed. The project will make necessary preparations in order to ensure effective evaluation by the team.
- (c) Public relations
- The project will continue the publication of the “ASEAD News” (news letter), in English and Thai languages. The project webpage, currently in Japanese language, will be modified so that it carries English/Thai languages. A video for public relations will be prepared.